Some of the images from the previous blog haven’t managed to make it over via the automatic export/import and I will get around to fixing those over time.

Apologies for any inconvenience.

Analysis of this data allows a prediction to be made of the level of FiTs payments that will be made to PV owners in the current year (April 2012 to March 2013).

Data for systems up to 50kW is published weekly by DECC with this being sourced from registrations on the MCS database made by installers. Larger systems are registered directly with OFGEM and there appears to be a significant time delay before all systems appear in the OFGEM data set.

By taking the DECC/MCS data for all systems up to 50kW and then adding the over 50kW system data from OFGEM we can get a pretty good idea of the total current situation – there being not that many new over 50kW systems.

By applying the average generation figures per kW to the known total kW of all systems across the various FiT tariff bands, and taking into account the registration dates, we can then calculate the amount of money that will be paid to these system owners in total both by each quarter and for the whole year.

Let’s look at the numbers.

I have allowed for the 50% deemed export figures in systems up to 10kW but not included any export for the larger systems as these will generally be metered. So this total can be regarded as an underestimate. Similarly payments for non-PV systems have not been included in this data as generation for these is more difficult to predict, so this is another source of under-estimation of the likely FiTs total.

All these figures are based on known and registered systems as at 31st March 2012. No allowance is included for any new systems being installed through the current year. Each new system will increase the amount payable.

DECC’s notional ‘budget’ for FiTs payments in the year 2012-13 is made up of:

Original budget (from the 2010 CSR) £161 million
ROC money that DECC transferred £35 million
20% headroom allowed by HM Treasury £39 million

This ‘budget’ total comes to £235 million. But the expenditure looks likely to exceed £450 million for PV alone in the current year.

Can DECC continue to hold the FiTs scheme open to new entrants under these circumstances?

Sources:
OFGEM data
MCS data
Tariffs 2012/13
PVGIS
DECC budget (para 21)

There are two separate but similar guides.

FiT Licensees

Generators using the ROO-FIT process for > 50kW systems

To prove an EPC exemption will require the production of a letter from a Domestic Energy Assessor stating that it is not possible to produce an EPC for the building and explaining why.

This proposes to simply suspend the scheme should the current year budget be spent and represents a return to the style of operation that destroyed the Low Carbon Building Programme (LCBP) grant funding mechanism that the RHI and FiTs was designed to replace. One of the options under consideration is for the scheme to be closed down with no notice period at all.

Can DECC really be serious about this? Just check that April 1st hasn’t come early.

But just maybe it isn’t anything to really worry about. If you look at the budget versus actual figures so far (included in the consultation document) then the RHI is not proving to be attractive in the non-domestic sector.

Financial year     Budget (£m)
2011/12            56
2012/13            133
2013/14            251
2014/15            424
Total              864

This includes the £15 million allocated to RHPP in the present year and the announced £25 million for the coming year. The actual spend in the current year is less than £5 million representing a total underspend of £51 million and DECC are predicting a total spend in the coming year of only £55 million against the budgeted £133 million – another underspend of some £78 million.

The only problem here is that if a budget is underspent in any financial year then that money disappears and is lost from the RHI budget as there is no carry-forward of unspent cash.

So in its first two years the RHI will have underspent a total of £129 million. Not exactly a major success story and if this was to continue then the budget control mechanism would never actually be used.

Well minister Greg Clark has said ”sustainable means ensuring that better lives for ourselves don’t mean worse lives for future generations” and that ”development means growth”.

So ‘not much’ would be my expectation.

Less than £5million of the originally budgeted £15million for RHPP has been spent to date.

Alongside this DECC will also put in place control measures to contain the potential total costs of the RHI. Although, with the poor take-up so far at the non-domestic level, it remains to be seen just how necessary this will be.

Greg Barker said: “Looking at the scheme’s current spending it’s unlikely we will need to use these short-term measures, however Ofgem will hold a series of conferences for potential applicants over the next few months so it is right for us to be cautious and have the ability to act should we need to.”.

This leaves everyone who installed PV systems between the proposed deadline of 12th December 2011 and the 3rd March 2012, when new legislative changes were implemented, on the full tariff of 43.3p for a system not exceeding 4kW.

Now the question will be – how many will seek compensation for their losses brought about by the unlawful action of the government?

There are a few major differences from the equivalent domestic permitted development, such as:

solar panels cannot be installed within one metre of the edge of a roof, solar panels cannot be installed on the roof of a building within a conservation area, wind turbines and air source heat pumps are not included.

Also included is a minor change to the existing wording of Part 40 for domestic installations that has minimal effect.

The Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (Amendment) (England) Order 2012

The peak to beat the 2nd March deadline was almost as big as the December one, with 99.5MW registered in the final week.

It covers the changes that will come in from April 1st covering EPCs and the multi-site aggregator rules.

DECC also tell me that OFGEM will shortly be producing guidelines regarding the rules applying to EPCs.